EU must reject Bozo's posioned "offer"

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The proposals launched at the Tory conference have no chance of acceptance by the EU or Ireland, for several reasons, clear to most observers but seemingly unknown to the dimwit UK govt. Tory ministers have miscalculated their relative position at every step & are now poised to turn a crisis into a disaster for Britain.

1) creating new customs & regulatory barriers to cross-border trade in Ireland would be a fundamental breach of the GFA. Ireland & the EU are strongly committed to the GFA & take their responsibilities seriously. There is no possibility of the EU approving the UK govt’s irresponsible breach of the GFA. UK will be rightly condemned for this reckless breach of a fragile peace treaty & will, one way or another, pay a heavy price for disregard for the rule of law.

2) The GFA was incorporated into Irish law by a constitutional amendment. Any material change to the terms of the GFA would require a further constitutional amendment. Even if there was any willingness to reopen the terms of the GFA in Dublin, which there isn’t, it would be a risky, uncertain & time-consuming process.

3) UK’s negotiating position with the EU27 will be much weaker in the event of no deal Brexit. Membership rights will have lapsed. UK will not be represented in the EU council & will have no voting rights, no right to revoke Art 50 & no access to EU institutions. The treat of withdrawal is a card which can only be played once. Out means out, with the threat of no deal no longer available. A UK govt struggling to manage no deal chaos will have few, if any, cards to play.

4) The Irish govt is supported by every party in the Dail & by all but the DUP in NI. There are no political risks in rejecting the Tory “offer”. There would be serious risks in accepting it. Rejection of the poisoned “offer” can only strengthen the case for Irish unity, likely to become prominent in the event of no deal Brexit.

Tory Brexiters have an unerring ability to make the wrong move at the wrong time. They persistently misread the minds of EU & Irish leaders. The mafia-style take-it-or-leave it offer invites only one response from the EU, there is no basis for negotiation here. The EU will await serious proposals when sanity returns in London.

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